Macro Front and Fundamentals Lack Resonance, Copper Prices Fluctuate Rangebound [SMM Copper Morning Comment]

Last Friday evening, LME copper opened at $9,495.5/mt, initially dipped to $9,484.5/mt, then climbed all the way up, reaching $9,608/mt near the close, and finally dropped back slightly to close at $9,563.5/mt, up 0.01%. Trading volume reached 15,000 lots, and open interest was 276,000 lots. Last Friday evening, the most-traded SHFE copper 2412 contract opened and dipped to 76,520 yuan/mt, initially fluctuated higher to an intraday high of 76,890 yuan/mt, fluctuated rangebound near the close, and finally closed at 76,700 yuan/mt, up 0.3%. Trading volume reached 32,000 lots, and open interest was 152,000 lots. Macro side, investors assessed the continuous conflicts in the Middle East and the upcoming US election, with crude oil rising, which was bullish for copper prices. Domestically, Premier Li Qiang of the State Council held a regular meeting, emphasizing the need to strive to achieve the annual economic and social development goals, continuously implement a package of incremental policies, timely evaluate and optimize policies, increase counter-cyclical adjustments, and further enhance the effectiveness of macro-control. Fundamentals side, supply side, domestic copper cathode arrivals were limited, and the impact of the previous large inflow of imported copper gradually faded, leading to tight spot copper cathode. Demand side, due to the slight fluctuation in copper prices, downstream buyers remained cautious and mainly restocked on a need basis, resulting in weak spot market transactions. This week, as the market enters the trading of cargoes with invoices dated next month, market activity remains low, and spot premiums are expected to drop back slightly. Price side, domestic policy expectations provide support for copper prices, but fundamentals do not support further increases. Overall, macro front and fundamentals lack resonance, and copper prices are expected to maintain a fluctuating trend today with some resistance on the upside.